Ten years following the UK stumbled into a rushed public vote that divided the country and caused disorder, a advisory is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and citizens entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That conveys the caution from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially tense and seismic referendum.
"The lesson of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Intends to Encourage Dialogue
The pair have examined the political, economic and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a book, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the issue with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," said the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the victorious side don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the prospect, leaving it unclear whether or when there might be a referendum.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any government figures or campaigners want to engage even with the fundamentals. As an example, what sort of state should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators endorses unity or the status quo. They composes two articles that aim for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the argument against, marshalling financial and societal figures, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates cover flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to educate and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," said the writer. "Discussion implies an recognition of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate report they support unification but reject greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to reflect pro-UK communities' British culture.
"The Irish government does need to work out what the proposal from Irish nationalism is aside from just saying: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Likelihood of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur abruptly. "It is possible just a mad or a bad or a negligent official who declares: 'Let us proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, legitimate points, he said. "One side will prevail in this matter and the other side will eventually be defeated but both parties has got something to gain from the alternative arguments."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the debate, said O’Toole. "This is about the United Kingdom. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
