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Residents of the Big Apple will learn the identity of their next mayor this Tuesday, in a race that will decide who runs and defends the country's most populous metropolis at a moment when Donald Trump has vowed to deploy armed forces to the city.

Against that backdrop, New York has witnessed a race for mayor that has matched two distinctly opposing Democrats against each other. The contest has become an increasingly bitter face-off, marked by accusations of racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the ideological divide between the two leading contenders that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old progressive candidate whose rapid ascent and people-powered movement has attracted international attention. Representing the old guard is the former governor, the ex- New York governor now running as an independent – and benefiting from the support of ultra-rich donors and big business.

As the election approaches, it is the progressive, the former longshot who defeated his opponent in the Democratic primary who is solidly positioned as the frontrunner. Mamdani, who has run on a platform of affordability and pledged to halt rent increases for about 2 million New Yorkers, has outpaced Cuomo by double-digits across all surveys conducted in October, and it is very much the younger man's election to lose.

A Bitter Contest

However, the former governor, who stepped down as the state's leader in recent years amid allegations of sexual harassment, has made it clear he will fight to the end, and not necessarily in an above-the-belt manner. He has criticized Mamdani's goals as unrealistic, and in recent days chuckled along as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was strongly criticized as racist after sharing an artificial intelligence video that included a series of racist stereotypes and showed his opponent releasing a group of criminals.

This represents a particularly ugly end to an election that could be critical to the path that the Democratic party, struggling in its reaction to the former president's power moves, adopts in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

If Mamdani secures a clear victory, the establishment party leaders who have declined to support his campaign will be compelled to address a message that has appealed to Americans' anger at inequality, inflation and the establishment. It would be hard for the Senate leader and Hakeem Jeffries not to adopt at least some of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the fresh face has generated an enthusiasm within the party arguably not witnessed since Bernie Sanders ran for president eight years ago.

However, should the former governor, who had been predicted to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, complete a surprising riches-to-rags-to-riches victory, it could cement the party's current model of cautious, uninspiring resistance – a tactic that has angered the party base. A New York defeat of Mamdani's optimistic platform could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to remain in the political center – even as polls show the current iteration of the Democratic party is widely disliked nationwide.

Voter Enthusiasm

Residents of the city appear to favor the Mamdani vision. Polls show that Mamdani supporters are much more excited about their candidate than Cuomo backers, something that has been apparent during the race. The candidate's snappy videos on social media, his hopeful outlook for New York and his willingness to actually venture out and meet people in the metropolis has drawn an force of over fifty thousand volunteers, many of them youth or new participants.

Negative Tactics

Yet, the former governor, in his late sixties, isn't giving up. And with the risks against him, the former governor has resorted to ugly messaging in the final days.

After spending months throwing basically everything at his opponent to see what might resonate, the independent has concentrated on targeting the candidate directly. He has called Mamdani, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and popped up on conservative media for an discussion with a rightwing host, where Cuomo asserted New York “will not survive” his opponent as city leader. It reached a nadir recently, when Cuomo chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a broadcaster said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style attack.

Political Landscape

This strategy mirrors much of what Trump, who has sent the national guard to the capital and warned to do the same to NYC, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that is expected. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to Trump in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to elect the independent into office, as other powerful voices have pressured Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the race.

Candidate Backgrounds

As far as the his team, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should not have reached to this. When the assemblyman, one of 150 state legislators, started his mayoral bid in October 2024, not many had known him, and in reality, few even paid attention.

Cuomo, by comparison, eased his way into the race in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the political heavyweight who apparently held all the advantages. The quintessential political insider, he had married a political dynasty member and served in Bill Clinton’s administration. He became the state's leader in 2011, seventeen years after his parent, Mario Cuomo, left office from the identical role.

The progressive, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his dedication to providing free buses and free childcare – along with the rent control promise – present a brighter outlook of the city's direction than Cuomo’s pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his promise to hire more police officers.

Recent Challenges

Still, Mamdani has faced difficulties in recent days, after footage surfaced appearing to show him suggesting the New York police department and the IDF were connected.

“We have to make clear that when the pressure of the police is on your neck, it’s been laced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the clip, recorded at a Democratic Socialists of America gathering in 2023. The progressive, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the nation is engaging in atrocities in Gaza, suggested he was criticizing joint training exercises between the city police and Israeli forces.

Emotional Response

As the race closes, the candidate seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his response to Cuomo’s escalating attacks.

The progressive addressed the independent's 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first ran for state assembly, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to disclose about his religion. It was a realization, he said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the shadows of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where followers of Islam could express their true selves, and that if we were to step out from those seclusion, then it is in those silence that we must set aside our beliefs.”

Addressing the behavior of his opponents, who has alleged Mamd