War-torn Myanmar Votes in Broadly Condemned Political Theater.

Polling materials in Myanmar
Myanmar's military is conducting a staggered vote over the coming weeks.

The nation is holding an election in a vote widely dismissed as a sham, with key opposition groups banned, many of their leaders jailed and as much as half of the country unlikely to vote because of an continuing internal conflict.

A Phased Ballot Amid War

The military government is holding a staggered election nearly five years after it seized power in a takeover, which ignited massive protests and escalated into a civil war.

Observers say the junta, with backing from Beijing, is attempting to validate and entrench its power as it seeks a way out of the devastating stalemate.

"The environment does not allow for the exercise of the freedoms of freedom of expression, assembly or peaceful protest," the United Nations' top human rights official Volker Türk said.

Over two hundred people have been prosecuted for disrupting or criticising the polls under a new law which imposes severe punishments, including the possibility of execution.

Film director Mike Tee, actor Kyaw Win Htut and entertainer Ohn Daing were among the well-known individuals found guilty under the law, which was enacted in July. They were each handed a prison sentence of seven years after criticising a film endorsing the elections.

Immense Challenges and Pressure

Civilians are "being coerced from all sides," Mr Türk said in a comment, adding that resistance forces have issued their own threats asking people to shun the polls.

The military has been fighting on several fronts, against both pro-democracy fighters who reject the coup, as well as ethnic armed organisations which have their own forces. It lost control of vast areas of the country in a series of major setbacks, but clawed back territory this year following sustained aerial bombardment enabled by support from Beijing and Moscow.

All of this and the fact that significant regions of the country are still under opposition control presents a massive logistical challenge for conducting an election.

A Restricted Poll

The ballot is set to take place in three rounds over the coming weeks in 274 of the country's 330 townships, with the rest deemed too unstable. Results are expected around the end of January.

There is unlikely to be any voting in as much as one half of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, some districts will hold elections, making it challenging to forecast a possible turnout.

A handful of parties, including the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, are running nominees nationwide, while another 51 parties and independent candidates will contest only at the local levels.

Some 40 parties, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which achieved decisive wins in 2015 and 2020, have been dissolved. Suu Kyi and a number of the party's key leaders have been jailed under charges broadly viewed as politically motivated, while the rest are in hiding abroad.

Criticism and Rejection

"Through dividing the vote into phases, the authorities can adjust tactics if the outcomes in the initial round do not go their way," commented Htin Kyaw Aye, a representative of the watchdog group Spring Sprouts.

Western governments, including the UK and the European Parliament, have dismissed the vote as a pretence, while regional bloc Asean has called for negotiations to precede any election.

The Burmese junta has dismissed condemnation of the polls, maintaining that it aims to "return [the country] to a multi-party democratic system".

"This vote is being held for our nation. It is being held for the people of this country. It is not intended for the outside world," a junta spokesman stated at a news conference last week.

Military leader Min Aung Hlaing cautioned earlier this week that those who choose not to participate are rejecting "progress toward democracy".

Kimberly Long
Kimberly Long

Alex Thornton is the founding director of Local Studio, with over 20 years of experience in community-led design and sustainable architecture.